October is one of the most interesting months in the GTA real estate cycle. Summer has cooled, the kids are back in school, and serious buyers and sellers are re-entering the market with clear goals. If you have been sitting on the sidelines, this month deserves your full attention.

I am Heidi Shiraz, REALTOR and Mortgage Agent with Century 21 Heritage Group in Richmond Hill. I serve buyers and sellers across the GTA and York Region, and I want to give you a straight picture of what is happening in the market right now.

The GTA Market in Numbers: September and October 2026

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported 5,057 residential transactions in August 2026, with an average selling price of $993,410 and a benchmark price of $925,900. Active listings were down approximately 11 percent year over year, which tells us that while sales have moderated, supply has not returned to historic norms.

Heading into October, the market is showing these key characteristics:

•  Detached homes in York Region continue to hold value well, especially in Thornhill, Richmond Hill, and Markham.

•  Condominium prices remain soft in the 905, offering real opportunity for first time buyers and investors.

•  The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25 percent since October 2025, and prime rate sits at 4.45 percent. Fixed mortgage rates in the mid to high 4 percent range remain available for well qualified buyers.

•  The sales to new listings ratio in York Region is hovering near 45 to 50 percent, placing us in balanced to slightly buyers market territory.

What does this mean in plain language? Buyers have more negotiating power than they did in 2021 and 2022, but the best properties are still moving quickly when priced correctly.

York Region Spotlight: Thornhill, Richmond Hill, and Vaughan

York Region continues to attract families from across the GTA because of its school rankings, green space, highway access, and relative value compared to Toronto proper. Here is what I am seeing on the ground:

Thornhill

The prestigious pockets of Thornhill, including Laureleaf Road, Henderson Avenue, and the John Street corridor, are seeing steady interest from move up buyers and downsizers alike. Luxury properties in the $2 million to $4 million range are taking longer to sell than they did two years ago, but correctly priced homes with quality finishes are still attracting multiple offers. If you own a luxury home in Thornhill and are considering selling, October and November can be strategic months because there is less competition and more motivated buyers.

Richmond Hill

Richmond Hill remains one of the top searches for GTA families relocating from Toronto. Bayview Hill, Jefferson, and Oak Ridges continue to see demand for detached four bedroom homes in the $1.3 million to $1.9 million range. The Yonge Street corridor from Elgin Mills to Major Mackenzie is also seeing renewed condo interest, particularly from downsizers and first time buyers.

Vaughan

Vaughan continues to grow rapidly. The Woodbridge and Maple communities are popular with families, and the VMC subway extension has increased interest in condo living near transit. If you are a first time buyer priced out of Richmond Hill, Vaughan is worth a serious look.

What Buyers Should Do in October 2026

If you are buying this fall, here is my honest advice:

•  Get pre approved now. With rates in the mid 4 percent range, knowing your budget before you start looking saves you from emotional decisions.

•  Do not wait for a rate drop. The Bank of Canada has held steady, and any future cuts will bring more buyers back into the market, increasing competition.

•  Look at properties that have been sitting for 30 days or more. In a balanced market, those sellers are often the most motivated to negotiate.

•  Consider condos in York Region as a first purchase. In the $550,000 to $750,000 range, you can own rather than rent and build equity while the detached market softens.

As both a REALTOR and a Mortgage Agent, I can help you get pre approved and search for your home at the same time. That coordination saves weeks and reduces stress significantly.

What Sellers Should Do in October 2026

If you are selling this fall, you need a sharp strategy:

•  Price to the market, not to your expectations. Overpriced homes sit, accumulate days on market, and eventually sell for less than they would have at the right price from day one.

•  Invest in presentation. Decluttered, well lit, professionally photographed homes sell for more. Period.

•  October listings face less competition than spring, but buyers in October are serious. They are not browsing. Price it right and they will move quickly.

•  If you are a luxury seller in Thornhill, Richmond Hill, or the Bridle Path area of Toronto, ask me about my targeted digital marketing strategy for properties above $2 million.

What About Mortgage Rates Right Now?

With prime rate at 4.45 percent, variable rate mortgages are sitting in the low to mid 5 percent range. Fixed rates for a five year term are available in the mid to high 4 percent range for insured purchases and slightly higher for conventional.

For first time buyers, the federal government extended 30 year amortizations on insured mortgages in 2024, meaning your monthly payment on a $700,000 purchase with 10 percent down could be approximately $3,300 to $3,500 per month on a five year fixed rate. That is more manageable than many renters assume.

If you would like me to run exact numbers for your situation, I offer a free mortgage review with no obligation.

Looking Ahead: November and the End of Year Push

Historically, October and early November see a burst of serious activity before the market quiets for the holidays. If you are planning to buy or sell before year end, the next six to eight weeks are your window. After that, you are looking at a spring 2027 timeline.

My calendar is open. Whether you are buying your first condo in Vaughan, upgrading to a luxury home in Thornhill, or considering an investment property in Richmond Hill, I am ready to help you move forward with confidence.

Ready to Buy or Sell in the GTA This Fall? Call or text Heidi Shiraz at 416-270-4789 Email: heidi.shiraz@century21.caVisit: heidishiraz.com

Century 21 Heritage Group Ltd., Richmond Hill, Ontario. Free Consultation. No Obligation. Real Answers.